More Paul Ryan Analysis

That was a fascinatingpick from the Romney Campaign. Here are ten thoughts on the crystallizingcampaign as we move within 12 weeks of Election Day.
1. Inretrospect, what were the clues that said “Paul Ryan”? Luckily, I found thebig clue Friday morning and amended myPower Rankings before the announcement. Stephen Kurczy asked in my article’scomment section if the recent Chris Christie and Paul Ryan buzz changed mymind. I dismissed Christie, but I did move Ryan up to #4 after I saw Romney’sinterview with MSNBC’s Chuck Todd. Todd asked Romney about what he’s lookingfor in his running mate. Romney responded notwith the classic, “Someone who can take over on Day One,” which would have beenPortman, Rice, a Senator with foreign policy experience, or a governor withexecutive experience, but rather, “Someone who has a vision for the country”and can add to its “political discourse.”
More than anyone else on the list, Paul Ryanexudes “vision for the country.” A young, articulate fiscal hawk and chairmanof the House Budget Committee, Ryan is the GOP’s primaryspokesperson on the debt and deficit. He combatted the Obama budget withhis own, “ThePath to Prosperity,” or the “Ryan Budget,” which most of the GOP quickly adopted.He’s the classic “policy wonk” visionary of fiscal conservatism. When Romneydropped that “political discourse” line in the Todd interview, Ryan shot up mylist. One day later, it was official.
2. Romneycouldn’t wait any longer. More often than not, the VP announcement comes closerto a party’s nominating convention. (By comparison, in 2008, Joe Biden wasannounced on August 23 and Sarah Palin on August 29.) However, Romney’ssummer of momentum had an early end. By mid-July, he was only one pointback, on average, in the national polls, including leading two polls in one week.Lately, however, the President has once again stormed ahead, openingup his Real Clear Politics lead to over four points, including leads of 7, 7,9, and 7 in four of the six major August polls. If Romney waited another week,he could have been down by an average of 6 or 7 points. If he waited until theweek before the convention, it could have been close to 10.
Now, however, Romney will see an immediate bumpin polling. The VP announcement will excite the campaign and infuse money andsupport. Expect a rise of about two points, which the Romney/Ryan ticket willtry to ride into the Republican National Convention at the end of the month,when they will get another bump. By the close of August, the race will even upagain.
3. MSNBC wasmuzzled for two days. Another timing factor—with the Olympics going anothertwo days after the announcement, did the Romney Campaign factor in that liberalMSNBC would not be able to fully attack Ryan until Monday, during which Fox Newsmight be able to help crystallize an opinion of the Wisconsin Congressman? (CNNis usually pretty good about not lefting up the airwaves without responses fromthe right. MSNBC and Fox News make no effort to be balanced.)
4. Romneyis “doubling down” on the economy. He didn’t care about adding foreignpolicy experience to the ticket (Rice, Portman or other senator). He didn’tcare about a rabid social conservative (McDonnell, Santorum). He didn’t careabout appealing to a big swing state (McDonnell, Rubio, Portman). Instead, Romneystayed focused on the economy.
Romney and Ryan will have clear roles in the next10 weeks. Romney will focus on job creation, while Ryan will teach us how tobalance the books. Romney will tell us how to lower unemployment, while Ryanwill tell us how to transition Medicare and Social Security to something moresustainable. Economy, economy, economy.
And since that’s what everyone seems to careabout most this election, that’s not a bad call.
5. Thispick keeps the base happy. Ryan is a conservativethrough and through. CNN’sJim Acosta said, “The conservative movement has no bigger gun.” BigRepublicans are lining up behind him.
You have to think that for the last few months,the conservative base of the party still worried about a betrayal from theformer moderate governor of Massachusetts. With the conservative Ryan as arunning mate, the base can finally feel comfortable that if they vote forRomney, they’re voting for a legacy of conservatism. Romney never hedged backto the middle like Santorum and Gingrich warned he would back in the primary.
6. We’venever seen a pair of tickets like this before. There are no southerners onthe ballot. There are none who served in the military. Have we seen a permanentshift away from asking generals and other veterans to lead our country?  With entrenched ideologies and 24/7 nationalnews at our fingertips, have we ceased to identify ourselves with regionalpoliticians? These are intriguing questions.
7. Here’sa date to circle on your calendar: On 10/11/12 (easy to remember), Vice-President Joe Biden andPaul Ryan will square off in the only vice-presidential debate. This debatefascinates me. More than a battle of ideologies, it’s a battle of personas. Whileno one really doubts Biden’s intelligence, he has certainly developed thereputation of being rather bumbling. He’s a constant source of humor for modernpolitical comedians. On the other side, Paul Ryan is known for his thoughtful,polished articulation.
Frankly, I think these reputations set up wellfor Biden. Debates are an expectations game. Biden’s expectations will be low,and the pressure will be on the young Ryan to make Biden seem like a confused oldman who can’t find his car keys. But Biden is an experienced, learnedpolitician, and he might have a trick up his sleeve or two, like a veteranathlete in a big game.
Which gets me to thinking—this debate might beJoe Biden’s last hurrah. If he has any chance of garnering the nomination infour years, he’ll need to be on top of his game (and hope Hillary Clintondoesn’t run) to show he can stand up to an up-and-coming Republican. A Bidencollapse on national television might end his political career, whether in onemonth or four years. Biden’s career in the Senate goes back to 1973. How oftendo you get to see a 40-year politician fight for his political career in frontof a national audience? Must-watch television.
8. A meremember of the House on a ticket! If you’ll recall, one of my reasons forkeeping Ryan out of my top tier for the VP Rankings—both in April and last weekago—was that he was just a House member. Of the last 38 presidential ticketsdating back 70 years, 31 had two of the following: senators, governors, high-rankingmilitary officers, or major national positions (vice-presidents or high-rankingcabinet/intelligence members).
Of the seven exceptions, the Democrats had two: AmbassadorSargent Shriver—an emergency replacement for Senator Thomas Eagleton—was pairedwith George McGovern in 1972, and Congresswoman Geraldine Ferraro teamed upwith Walter Mondale in 1984. The results of those two elections were the twoworst electoral defeats in presidential history.
On the Republican side, there are five exceptions:Congressman Jack Kemp in 1996, Congressman William E. Miller in 1964,Ambassador Henry Cabot Lodge in in 1960, Businessman Wendell Wilkie in 1940(the only presidential nominee of the bunch), and editor-publisher Frank Knoxin 1936.
All lost.
Thus, the record of these seven exceptions to therule is zero wins, seven losses. Now you understand why they’re so rare, andwhy the Ryan selection is a bit of a surprise.
9. Howwill the Democrats counter? Surely they put together a game plan againstany Romney nominee. The argument against Ryan is that he’s a program-cutter. Hewants to transform Social Security and Medicare, among other social programs.These cuts disproportionally affect middle and lower class Americans,especially senior citizens. The Democrats will surely remind seniors of that inplaces like Florida. (Of course, they won’t mention that the Ryan budgetdoesn’t touch Medicare for those 55 and older.) Senior citizens vote at ahigher rate than any other age group. With Floridaas the biggest battleground prize, this pick could come back to haunt theRepublicans. (Their hope, of course, is that the Ryan pick will translate to anationwide surge that would include Florida.)
Beyond characterizing Ryan as an enemy of themiddle class, the Democrats can now ramp up attacks on the GOP ticket’s lack offoreign policy experience. Neither Romney nor Ryan boast any. Can a 42-year-oldHouse member whose credentials lie solely in the financial arena really beready to be commander-in-chief? Even the inexperienced Senator Obama paired up withthe uber-experienced Joe Biden in 2008. Perhaps foreign policy and securityaren’t on the forefront of voters’ minds this year, but such a gap between thetickets might worry enough Independents to tolerate the slowly improving Obamaeconomy.
10. CanSNL steal BJNovak from The Office to play Ryan next season? The resemblance isuncanny! I’m not sure which current cast member could pull it off. Maybe theycould bring back RachelDratch?
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