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Despite Rick Santorum's triumphant victories last night, he pulled no closer to Mitt Romney in the delegate projections. In fact, he fell further behind. Remember, in addition to the Alabama and Mississippi primaries, Hawaii and the American Samoa held caucuses as well. Since Santorum won in a squeaker over both rivals in states that allocate delegates proportionally, he'll only garner a handful more delegates than them in those contests. Romney, meanwhile, won big in the islands. In one American Samoa romp, Romney made up the deficit accrued by Alabama and Mississippi. Then, with his victory in Hawaii, Romney became yesterday's delegate winner.
Therefore, even before factoring in Romney's likely victory in Hawaii, CNN projects that both Romney and Santorum picked up 31 delegates yesterday. Hawaii will send Romney up even further. Real Clear Politics has factored in American Samoa and most of Hawaii, so, according to their current projections, Romney picked up 40 delegates to Santorum's 35 (and Gingrich's 25). It's worth noting that in Alabama, both CNN and RCP have yet to allocate some delegates, but we can expect they'll be spread rather evenly. The point will hold: Mitt Romney won more delegates yesterday than Rick Santorum did.
Yet, in the momentum game, Rick Santorum--and Newt Gingrich, actually--made enormous gains on the "inevitable" nominee. The chances for the first brokered convention in modern history just ticked up.
Here are the latest
Republican Delegate Projections
CNN Standings
1. Romney--498
2. Santorum-239
3. Gingrich--139
4. Paul--69
Real Clear Politics Standings
1. Romney--496
2. Santorum--236
4. Gingrich--142
3. Paul--67
Official (not counting unbound delegates)
1. Romney--432
2. Santorum--165
3. Gingrich--134
4. Paul--25
I'll update each of those as the websites do. I'll have spin from each campaign a bit later, and then we'll look forward to the upcoming contests. See you then.
13 Ekim 2012 Cumartesi
D'oh! The Etch-A-Sketch Seen 'Round the World
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"You could not have found a more perfect illustration of why people distrust Romney than to have his (adviser) say that the Etch A Sketch allows you to erase everything in the general election." - Newt Gingrich, yesterday, Louisiana
Seriously, Romney Campaign? Seriously? I mean, you're going to be the nominee and everything, but can you please get out of your own way? This Etch A Sketch thing... you just can't make it up.
What's the number one criticism of Mitt Romney from the Republican Party's conservative base? That he's not actually a conservative! When he wanted to be a United States Senator from liberal Massachusetts in 1994, he ran as a moderate. It's only when he started running for the Republican nomination for the presidency that he became a conservative. That smell of fish doesn't come from Cape Cod. Something's obviously convenient about the evolution of Mitt Romney's ideology.
Romney, consequently, has basically spent five years assuring the GOP that he's actually a conservative now. ("Honest! I swear! Cross my heart!") Finally, on Tuesday night, he won the Illinois Primary, a contest that basically assured Romney of the inevitability tag for the rest of the nomination process. He did it. He finally pulled it off. Whether he had legitimately moved to the right or he successfully pulled the wool over conservatives' eyes, he was going to be the nominee of the Republican Party. It worked. He won.
And then yesterday happened. Now, I hesitate to say this will have any real impact on his inevitability. It won't. But it still makes for an entertaining development that, at the very least, cost him Louisiana on Saturday. When one of Romney's top advisers, Eric Fehrnstrom, engages in this back and forth with CNN's John Fugelsang, and you consider all that Romney has had to do and say to convince the party of his conservative stripes, you can see why this is pretty darn funny. Here's the video which reveals the dialogue in question:
Fugelsang (CNN): "Is there a concern [that] Santorum and Gingrich's attacks might force the governor so far to the right that it might hurt him with moderate voters in the general election?"
Fehrnstrom (Romney Campaign) responded: "I think you hit a reset button for the fall campaign. Everything changes. It's almost like an Etch A Sketch. You can kind of shake it up and restart all over again."
In other words, Romney says what he needs to say in order to win the Republican nomination, but then when it's the general election, he'll say something else--something moderate--which is the number one thing conservative Republicans had been fearing. You can't make this stuff up.
His rivals, both campaigning in Louisiana, quickly pounced. Rick Santorum has actually been levying this kind of criticism for about a week now, especially after Romney seemingly reversed his position on Puerto Rico's English language requirement for state-hood. ("We stood up for the truth in Puerto Rico. Mitt Romney pandered." This development, therefore, was right in his wheelhouse.
First, his campaign posted a Twitter photo of Santorum using the toy, captioning that the candidate was "studying up on (Romney's) policy positions." Santorum later told the Louisiana audience that Romney "will say what he needs to say to win the election before him, and if he has to say something different because it's a different election and a different group of voters, he will say that, too." Then he drove the point home:
"Well, that should be comforting to all of you who are voting in this primary." With that, Romney lost Louisiana.
Newt Gingrich piled on at his own Bayou State rally. "You have to stand for something that lasts longer than this," he said, holding up his own Etch a Sketch. (Here's what I want to know: did the toy's sales see a bump yesterday? They must have, right?)
More Gingrich: "Here's Gov. Romney's staff, they don't even have the decency to wait until they get the nomination to explain to us how they'll sell us out."
And from that link, more Santorum: "Gov. Romney's campaign had a real moment of truth today. . . . It actually revealed what everybody knew or suspected but now know: Gov. Romney is interested in saying whatever is necessary to win the election and when the game changes, he'll change."
Ouch!
Of course, it should be said that it's not at all uncommon for a nominee of either party to move to the center once the general election season begins. It's just that when conservatives constantly struggle with Romney's past views on social issues, this kind of comment really sticks out. And perhaps the biggest impact of this slip-up is not that it will affect the primary, but that if and when Romney does move to the center, conservatives will feel all the more betrayed, and perhaps even desert the candidate on Election Day.
If only the Romney Campaign could erase yesterday and start anew.
Seriously, Romney Campaign? Seriously? I mean, you're going to be the nominee and everything, but can you please get out of your own way? This Etch A Sketch thing... you just can't make it up.
What's the number one criticism of Mitt Romney from the Republican Party's conservative base? That he's not actually a conservative! When he wanted to be a United States Senator from liberal Massachusetts in 1994, he ran as a moderate. It's only when he started running for the Republican nomination for the presidency that he became a conservative. That smell of fish doesn't come from Cape Cod. Something's obviously convenient about the evolution of Mitt Romney's ideology.
Romney, consequently, has basically spent five years assuring the GOP that he's actually a conservative now. ("Honest! I swear! Cross my heart!") Finally, on Tuesday night, he won the Illinois Primary, a contest that basically assured Romney of the inevitability tag for the rest of the nomination process. He did it. He finally pulled it off. Whether he had legitimately moved to the right or he successfully pulled the wool over conservatives' eyes, he was going to be the nominee of the Republican Party. It worked. He won.
And then yesterday happened. Now, I hesitate to say this will have any real impact on his inevitability. It won't. But it still makes for an entertaining development that, at the very least, cost him Louisiana on Saturday. When one of Romney's top advisers, Eric Fehrnstrom, engages in this back and forth with CNN's John Fugelsang, and you consider all that Romney has had to do and say to convince the party of his conservative stripes, you can see why this is pretty darn funny. Here's the video which reveals the dialogue in question:
Fugelsang (CNN): "Is there a concern [that] Santorum and Gingrich's attacks might force the governor so far to the right that it might hurt him with moderate voters in the general election?"
Fehrnstrom (Romney Campaign) responded: "I think you hit a reset button for the fall campaign. Everything changes. It's almost like an Etch A Sketch. You can kind of shake it up and restart all over again."
In other words, Romney says what he needs to say in order to win the Republican nomination, but then when it's the general election, he'll say something else--something moderate--which is the number one thing conservative Republicans had been fearing. You can't make this stuff up.
His rivals, both campaigning in Louisiana, quickly pounced. Rick Santorum has actually been levying this kind of criticism for about a week now, especially after Romney seemingly reversed his position on Puerto Rico's English language requirement for state-hood. ("We stood up for the truth in Puerto Rico. Mitt Romney pandered." This development, therefore, was right in his wheelhouse.
First, his campaign posted a Twitter photo of Santorum using the toy, captioning that the candidate was "studying up on (Romney's) policy positions." Santorum later told the Louisiana audience that Romney "will say what he needs to say to win the election before him, and if he has to say something different because it's a different election and a different group of voters, he will say that, too." Then he drove the point home:
"Well, that should be comforting to all of you who are voting in this primary." With that, Romney lost Louisiana.
Newt Gingrich piled on at his own Bayou State rally. "You have to stand for something that lasts longer than this," he said, holding up his own Etch a Sketch. (Here's what I want to know: did the toy's sales see a bump yesterday? They must have, right?)
More Gingrich: "Here's Gov. Romney's staff, they don't even have the decency to wait until they get the nomination to explain to us how they'll sell us out."
And from that link, more Santorum: "Gov. Romney's campaign had a real moment of truth today. . . . It actually revealed what everybody knew or suspected but now know: Gov. Romney is interested in saying whatever is necessary to win the election and when the game changes, he'll change."
Ouch!
Of course, it should be said that it's not at all uncommon for a nominee of either party to move to the center once the general election season begins. It's just that when conservatives constantly struggle with Romney's past views on social issues, this kind of comment really sticks out. And perhaps the biggest impact of this slip-up is not that it will affect the primary, but that if and when Romney does move to the center, conservatives will feel all the more betrayed, and perhaps even desert the candidate on Election Day.
If only the Romney Campaign could erase yesterday and start anew.
The Electoral College Map (10/8/12)
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Debate season, week two in the presidential campaign opened with eight new polls from seven states. Together, most of the survey data seemingly indicated a continued narrowing between the two major party candidates, particularly in the toss up states. What is interesting is that while the post-convention period polling drew some lines of demarcation between some toss up states/groups of toss up states, said lines are being redefined now. For instance, among the toss up states, there was some marked separation in the FHQ weighted average margins between Florida/North Carolina and Colorado and then between Colorado and Iowa/Virginia. That Iowa/Virginia pair had gradually drawn closer to the tipping point state of Ohio, the margin in which had widened as well. But in the time since the first debate, there has been not only a reversal of that widening across the most important states in the electoral puzzle, but a compression in terms of the resulting polling averages. In other words the states are becoming competitive and those former lines of demarcation between states is disappearing.
Polling Quick Hits:
Colorado:
Though Obama topped or met the 50% mark in about half of the post-convention polling in the Centennial state, the president has more or less performed at or around his FHQ average share of support. The changes/narrowing there have/has been is more about the Romney side of the equation. Just before and in the time after the debate, the governor has more consistently pulled in a share of polling support above his pre-existing weighted average. And that is in line with this notion that there is continued compression in the toss up states.
Iowa:
The same is not necessarily the case in Iowa. Methodologically/statistically speaking Iowa has been slightly more volatile from poll to poll and its average has oscillated a bit more due to a lack of polls relative to the other toss ups. The pattern is less clear, then, in the Hawkeye state and we need more post-debate data to get a firm grasp on where the state of play is there. Close, yes, but how close is the question.
Louisiana:
Hey! Some Louisiana polling data! Oh, some Louisiana polling data. Yeah, it's good to have something out of the Pelican state, but the information we did get from Magellan did not really break from the conventional wisdom that Louisiana is safely red for Romney and the Republicans.
Massachusetts:
Sure, FHQ could draw a connection between Massachusetts and Louisiana because the outlook in each is the same -- solidly in one camp or the other -- but there has been much more data out of the Bay state. That hasn't made things any less clear there. We know Massachusetts will be an Obama state on November 6.
Michigan:
There is, perhaps, a similar outlook in Michigan, but it is certainly less strong than in Louisiana or Massachusetts. And that is a reasonable conclusion given that Michigan has been consistently blue throughout, but has spent some time as a toss up state in our averages. These two polls point toward some tightening, but do little to change the fact (given the information we have now) that Michigan may be trending more competitive, but is still likely to end up in the president's column on election day.
Pennsylvania:
See Michigan, but with the caveat that Pennsylvania has been slightly less competitive in 2012 polling of the Keystone state and that it was never a toss up as FHQ has measured it. That said, there is going to have to be additional, similar and consistent data in the Obama +2 range to bring Pennsylvania into a strategically competitive area for Romney. ...and that is not to say that that cannot happen, just that it hasn't yet.
Virginia:
We still don't have enough to go on post-debate in the Old Dominion, but this latest PPP survey did not change the FHQ average margin there at all. Both candidates outperformed their average shares of support but were still separated by a margin approximating the FHQ weighted average margin.
The separation that had developed between the groups of state mentioned at the top of this post might be disappearing but the ordering of states has remained largely unaltered. However, while that's true, if the compression continues, it is all the more likely that these states all become interchangeable to some degree. The order becomes less relevant as the toss up states cluster and more likely tip to one candidate or the other en masse (or split in less predictable ways/combinations). To this point, it should be noted that the majority of FHQ toss up states have tipped toward the president in the time since we began putting up daily electoral college updates in July.
This is a longwinded way of saying that there has been a change in direction of the trajectory of polling in the toss up states since the debate (and arguably a little bit before it), but that has yet to manifest itself in any noticeable way in the various FHQ graphical depictions of the race. The map above, for example, still shows the very same 332-206 electoral college count that it has shown all along. And sure, Massachusetts may have flip-flopped positions with Maryland again and Louisiana may have leapfrogged three states deeper into the Romney column, but among the states that will decide the final breakdown on the electoral vote tally -- the middle column in the Electoral College Spectrum below -- there has been no movement.
Where we can begin to or appreciate the movement that is occurring is perhaps on the ever-changing Watch List. Most consequentially, we have witnessed first Virginia and now Iowa slip off the list into a firmer position within the Toss Up Obama category. Neither is seemingly threatening to shift into the less competitive Lean Obama category now that the trajectory of polling has changed. As such, less competitive states like Indiana, Minnesota and Montana are not particularly worthy of watching -- despite being on the list -- but Ohio moving off the list and Nevada switching from a lean state on the verge of being a toss up to a toss up within a fraction of a point of being a lean state are certainly states to keep tabs on.
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| New State Polls (10/8/12) | |||||||||
| State | Poll | Date | Margin of Error | Sample | Obama | Romney | Undecided | Poll Margin | FHQ Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | Rasmussen | 10/7 | +/- 4.5% | 500 likely voters | 49 | 48 | 2 | +1 | +2.23 |
| Iowa | Rasmussen | 10/7 | +/- 4.5% | 500 likely voters | 49 | 47 | 2 | +2 | +2.96 |
| Louisiana | Magellan Strategies | 10/2-10/4 | +/- 1.9% | 2682 likely voters | 36.2 | 58.8 | 4.9 | +22.6 | +16.15 |
| Massachusetts | Western New England University/MassLive | 9/28-10/4 | +/- 4.7% | 440 likely voters | 63 | 33 | 3 | +30 | +21.08 |
| Michigan | Foster McCollum White | 10/5 | +/- 2.93% | 1122 likely voters | 49 | 46 | 3 | +3 | +5.79 |
| Michigan | EPIC/MRA | 10/4-10/6 | +/- 4.0% | 600 likely voters | 48 | 45 | 7 | +3 | -- |
| Pennsylvania | Susquehanna | 10/4-10/6 | +/- 3.64% | 725 likely voters | 47 | 45 | 4 | +2 | +7.01 |
| Virginia | Public Policy Polling | 10/4-10/7 | +/- 3.7% | 725 likely voters | 50 | 47 | 3 | +3 | +2.85 |
Polling Quick Hits:
Colorado:
Though Obama topped or met the 50% mark in about half of the post-convention polling in the Centennial state, the president has more or less performed at or around his FHQ average share of support. The changes/narrowing there have/has been is more about the Romney side of the equation. Just before and in the time after the debate, the governor has more consistently pulled in a share of polling support above his pre-existing weighted average. And that is in line with this notion that there is continued compression in the toss up states.
Iowa:
The same is not necessarily the case in Iowa. Methodologically/statistically speaking Iowa has been slightly more volatile from poll to poll and its average has oscillated a bit more due to a lack of polls relative to the other toss ups. The pattern is less clear, then, in the Hawkeye state and we need more post-debate data to get a firm grasp on where the state of play is there. Close, yes, but how close is the question.
Louisiana:
Hey! Some Louisiana polling data! Oh, some Louisiana polling data. Yeah, it's good to have something out of the Pelican state, but the information we did get from Magellan did not really break from the conventional wisdom that Louisiana is safely red for Romney and the Republicans.
Massachusetts:
Sure, FHQ could draw a connection between Massachusetts and Louisiana because the outlook in each is the same -- solidly in one camp or the other -- but there has been much more data out of the Bay state. That hasn't made things any less clear there. We know Massachusetts will be an Obama state on November 6.
Michigan:
There is, perhaps, a similar outlook in Michigan, but it is certainly less strong than in Louisiana or Massachusetts. And that is a reasonable conclusion given that Michigan has been consistently blue throughout, but has spent some time as a toss up state in our averages. These two polls point toward some tightening, but do little to change the fact (given the information we have now) that Michigan may be trending more competitive, but is still likely to end up in the president's column on election day.
Pennsylvania:
See Michigan, but with the caveat that Pennsylvania has been slightly less competitive in 2012 polling of the Keystone state and that it was never a toss up as FHQ has measured it. That said, there is going to have to be additional, similar and consistent data in the Obama +2 range to bring Pennsylvania into a strategically competitive area for Romney. ...and that is not to say that that cannot happen, just that it hasn't yet.
Virginia:
We still don't have enough to go on post-debate in the Old Dominion, but this latest PPP survey did not change the FHQ average margin there at all. Both candidates outperformed their average shares of support but were still separated by a margin approximating the FHQ weighted average margin.
The separation that had developed between the groups of state mentioned at the top of this post might be disappearing but the ordering of states has remained largely unaltered. However, while that's true, if the compression continues, it is all the more likely that these states all become interchangeable to some degree. The order becomes less relevant as the toss up states cluster and more likely tip to one candidate or the other en masse (or split in less predictable ways/combinations). To this point, it should be noted that the majority of FHQ toss up states have tipped toward the president in the time since we began putting up daily electoral college updates in July.
This is a longwinded way of saying that there has been a change in direction of the trajectory of polling in the toss up states since the debate (and arguably a little bit before it), but that has yet to manifest itself in any noticeable way in the various FHQ graphical depictions of the race. The map above, for example, still shows the very same 332-206 electoral college count that it has shown all along. And sure, Massachusetts may have flip-flopped positions with Maryland again and Louisiana may have leapfrogged three states deeper into the Romney column, but among the states that will decide the final breakdown on the electoral vote tally -- the middle column in the Electoral College Spectrum below -- there has been no movement.
| The Electoral College Spectrum1 | ||||
| VT-3(6)2 | WA-12(158) | NV-6(257) | AZ-11(167) | KY-8(55) |
| HI-4(10) | NJ-14(172) | OH-183(275/281) | MT-3(156) | ND-3(47) |
| RI-4(14) | CT-7(179) | IA-6(281/263) | IN-11(153) | AL-9(44) |
| NY-29(43) | NM-5(184) | VA-13(294/257) | GA-16(142) | KS-6(35) |
| MA-11(54) | MN-10(194) | CO-9(303/244) | SC-9(126) | AR-6(29) |
| MD-10(64) | OR-7(201) | FL-29(332/235) | NE-5(117) | AK-3(23) |
| IL-20(84) | PA-20(221) | NC-15(206) | TX-38(112) | OK-7(20) |
| CA-55(139) | MI-16(237) | SD-3(191) | WV-5(74) | ID-4(13) |
| DE-3(142) | WI-10(247) | MO-10(188) | LA-8(69) | WY-3(9) |
| ME-4(146) | NH-4(251) | TN-11(178) | MS-6(61) | UT-6(6) |
| 1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
Where we can begin to or appreciate the movement that is occurring is perhaps on the ever-changing Watch List. Most consequentially, we have witnessed first Virginia and now Iowa slip off the list into a firmer position within the Toss Up Obama category. Neither is seemingly threatening to shift into the less competitive Lean Obama category now that the trajectory of polling has changed. As such, less competitive states like Indiana, Minnesota and Montana are not particularly worthy of watching -- despite being on the list -- but Ohio moving off the list and Nevada switching from a lean state on the verge of being a toss up to a toss up within a fraction of a point of being a lean state are certainly states to keep tabs on.
| The Watch List1 | |||
| State | Switch | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | from Strong Romney | to Lean Romney | |
| Minnesota | from Strong Obama | to Lean Obama | |
| Montana | from Strong Romney | to Lean Romney | |
| Nevada | from Lean Obama | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Ohio | from Toss Up Obama | to Lean Obama | |
| 1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction. | |||
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Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/6/12)
The Electoral College Map (10/5/12)
The Electoral College Map (10/4/12)
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2012 Debates: Vice Presidential Debate Open Thread
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Tonight's vice presidential debate kicks off at 9pm (EST) from Centre College in Danville, KY. The format will be similar to last week's first presidential debate and will be hosted by ABC's Martha Raddatz. It really isn't any mystery as to what to look for tonight. The vice presidential nominees are typically more willing/freer to take the gloves off and play the attack dog role (...unless we're talking about the 2000 Cheney-Lieberman tilt). We'll see if Vice President Biden and Congressman Ryan follow suit tonight.
The same rules apply as last week. Feel free to weigh in with comments and other observations in comments section. I'll pop over periodically respond, but I'll be most active on Twitter (@FHQ). Feel free to follow along there using the hashtag #fhqvpdebate.
The same rules apply as last week. Feel free to weigh in with comments and other observations in comments section. I'll pop over periodically respond, but I'll be most active on Twitter (@FHQ). Feel free to follow along there using the hashtag #fhqvpdebate.
The Electoral College Map (10/9/12)
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Four weeks out from election day and in the middle of the second week of debate season, there were eleven new polls added to the FHQ dataset from ten states. We also added in a somewhat dated survey from another of those ten states, North Dakota. With few exceptions, this was another in the string of now several days of relatively good polling for Mitt Romney. Not only does the compression of toss up state averages continue, but several states are starting to move in a very noticeable way in the FHQ averages toward the former Massachusetts governor.
Polling Quick Hits:
Colorado:
The latest ARG poll finds Obama down three points and Romney up three points as compared to the firm's mid-September survey of the Centennial state. That turned a two point Romney deficit into a four point advantage, post-debate. In terms of the candidates' respective shares of support in the poll, Romney's outperformed where the FHQ weighted average has his share charted currently and Obama, to a lesser extent, underperformed his. That has less to do with the current trajectory of the polling in Colorado than it does the conservative nature of the FHQ averages. If there is a change across the partisan line, then it is typically a lasting change unless it hovers around that line.
Connecticut:
It has been over a month since any survey found the margin in the race for the seven electoral votes in the Nutmeg state in the single digits, and this Rasmussen poll is the first to show the president's lead under seven points there. On the cautionary side, FHQ will await additional data indicating/confirming a (not illogically) close race in Connecticut. After all, there has been past data to back up that assertion and we should expect, given movement in other states, some shift toward Romney there. But we don't have enough data to suggest that Connecticut is anything more than what New Jersey was in 2004: a probably reliable blue state tempting the Republican campaign to pay more attention to it.
Massachusetts:
Even with the margin having nearly halved since the last WBUR survey of the Bay state just a week and a half ago, Massachusetts is seemingly safely blue for the Obama campaign. However, as was the case with Connecticut above, if the expectation is that the Romney debate effect will be more or less uniform across states, then things have really shifted in Massachusetts. Still, the move is worth noting even in a strongly blue state.
Minnesota:
Unlike the two strong blue states immediately above, Minnesota has resisted the post-debate swing toward Romney at least in regard to the poll-over-poll comparison between PPP surveys. Since the last (mid-September) poll, Obama gained a couple of points and Romney lost one. It is a minimal change overall, and the results are consistent with pre-debate surveys of the Land of 10,000 Lakes. But this is also the only post-debate survey we have access to in Minnesota. Other firms may offer a different account of the state of the race there.
Nevada:
Things are all tied up in Nevada (...at least according to Rasmussen). That result is consistent with the only other post-debate survey of the Silver state from Gravis. And while those two polls, together, have not been enough to fundamentally shift things in Nevada, it is worth noting that had FHQ not lowered the cutpoints between categories last week, we would be talking about how Nevada had jumped into the Toss Up Obama category. Yet, if the current polling arc toward Romney continues, such a move probably won't be too far off. FHQ did want to take a moment to point out the fact that change may be masking some category movement toward the Republican nominee in some states. Nevada is the only state so far to fall into that group, but we will be sure to indicate when that happens in the future. Given the way things are moving, New Hampshire could potentially be the next such state.
New Hampshire:
In a poll that picked up on the day that the immediately previous WMUR poll came out of the field, the overall margin between the candidates dropped by nine points. That seems like a significant shift except for a couple of related reasons. First, the previous WMUR survey was -- at Obama +15 -- an outlier. The margin was overinflated and set up nicely for a big post-debate surge in the opposite direction. However (and secondly), more than half of the data for this poll was gathered prior to the first presidential debate last week. Given the reality of those two conflicting factors, the nine point shift is slightly more impressive.
North Carolina:
Well, the Tarheel state has provided us with a double digit margin in Romney's favor before and Gravis' first foray into the state approaches that level as well. Is this poll an outlier? Probably, but not nearly to the same extent as the early September Civitas poll reference above. Things are moving in Romney's direction in North Carolina as elsewhere, but that has meant a gradual subsidence of Obama leads and the emergence of more recent polls showing a Romney advantage in the 1-4 point range. In defense of Gravis, it very well could be that it is on the upper end of a new range, but we'll need more data to make that determination.
North Dakota:
Add one new and one dated poll to the small set of polls out of the Peace Garden state. The most recent and only post-debate survey from Mason-Dixon does not show any decided shift toward Romney; only a modest one point jump. Rest assured, though, despite little or not shift, North Dakota is not in any danger of being anything other than a solid Romney state on November 6.
Ohio:
The New Hampshire poll looks good on the surface for the president, but given the caveat described above, the CNN survey of the Buckeye state may be the lone bright spot for the incumbent. The poll may be a bit rosy but is not completely inconsistent with the scant though comparatively robust set of post-debate polling data. Obama's share of support in the CNN poll is in line with where Rasmussen charted it on the day after the debate last week. Romney's share is slightly under the Rasmussen mark, but both are running above where the FHQ weighted average level of support has the governor at the moment. We just need more data. The ARG poll largely mirrors the We Ask America poll from last week as well; a small Romney lead. This is likely the range in which the true levels of support for the candidates reside right now.
Pennsylvania:
FHQ was skeptical in the face of the Susquehanna poll released yesterday. The firm has tended to have though not always had results that were more favorable to Romney when compared to a long list of surveys indicating a margin in the Keystone state in the Obama +6-7 area. Without further data backing up a much closer race the skepticism was not unwarranted. But today's Siena release provides Susquehanna with some relief, pointing toward a race within a few points. Granted, Siena has a very high number of undecided voters for this late in the race and as a result understates both candidates' shares of support in the FHQ weighted averages. It will take a lot of data to move Pennsylvania into range of being on the Watch List, much less moving into the toss up category. [And yes, that may be a flaw in the formula here. But recall that FHQ likes being conservative. There's a trade-off between blowing in the wind of polling fluctuations or moving when a real consistent move has occurred.]
With no polling releases out of Florida today, the best chance to see some -- the first -- change to the overall electoral vote tally was dashed. Yet, the compression of the Ohio-Colorado group of toss up states continued. That compression, as we noted yesterday, is coupled with an overall movement toward Romney. The order of those states has to this point remained the same on the Electoral College Spectrum below. Meanwhile North Dakota jumped five spots over in the order toward the partisan line separating each candidate's list of states. And yeah, Massachusetts and Maryland switched places again. That is less significant as a move than it is as an indication that the two are quite closely huddled together way out in safe Obama land in the far left column below.
There were new polls in both Nevada and Ohio, but neither did enough to change either state's position on the Watch List or remove either altogether. Additionally, there were no new states with new polling data out today that threatened to jump onto the list. It was a status quo day. ...but only on the Watch List.
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Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.
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The Electoral College Map (10/8/12)
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| New State Polls (10/9/12) | |||||||||
| State | Poll | Date | Margin of Error | Sample | Obama | Romney | Undecided | Poll Margin | FHQ Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | American Research Group | 10/5-10/8 | +/- 4.0% | 600 likely voters | 46 | 50 | 3 | +4 | +1.98 |
| Connecticut | Rasmussen | 10/7 | +/- 4.5% | 500 likely voters | 51 | 45 | 3 | +6 | +11.50 |
| Massachusetts | WBUR/MassInc | 10/5-10/7 | +/- 4.4% | 501 likely voters | 52 | 36 | 10 | +16 | +20.78 |
| Minnesota | Public Policy Polling | 10/5-10/8 | +/- 3.2% | 937 likely voters | 53 | 43 | 4 | +10 | +9.35 |
| Nevada | Rasmussen | 10/8 | +/- 4.5% | 500 likely voters | 47 | 47 | 3 | 0 | +4.32 |
| New Hampshire | WMUR/UNH | 9/30-10/6 | +/- 4.1% | 545 likely voters | 50 | 44 | 4 | +6 | +5.07 |
| North Carolina | Gravis Marketing | 10/6-10/8 | +/- 2.9% | 1325 likely voters | 41.2 | 49.9 | 8.8 | +8.7 | +1.31 |
| North Dakota | DFM Research | 9/24-9/27 | +/- 4.0% | 600 likely voters | 39 | 51 | 10 | +12 | +14.91 |
| North Dakota | Mason-Dixon | 10/3-10/5 | +/- 4.0% | 625 likely voters | 40 | 54 | 5 | +14 | -- |
| Ohio | American Research Group | 10/5-10/8 | +/- 4.0% | 600 likely voters | 47 | 48 | 4 | +1 | +3.60 |
| Ohio | CNN | 10/5-10/8 | +/- 3.5% | 722 likely voters | 51 | 47 | 1 | +4 | -- |
| Pennsylvania | Siena | 10/1-10/5 | +/- 4.2% | 545 likely voters | 43 | 40 | 12 | +3 | +6.85 |
Polling Quick Hits:
Colorado:
The latest ARG poll finds Obama down three points and Romney up three points as compared to the firm's mid-September survey of the Centennial state. That turned a two point Romney deficit into a four point advantage, post-debate. In terms of the candidates' respective shares of support in the poll, Romney's outperformed where the FHQ weighted average has his share charted currently and Obama, to a lesser extent, underperformed his. That has less to do with the current trajectory of the polling in Colorado than it does the conservative nature of the FHQ averages. If there is a change across the partisan line, then it is typically a lasting change unless it hovers around that line.
Connecticut:
It has been over a month since any survey found the margin in the race for the seven electoral votes in the Nutmeg state in the single digits, and this Rasmussen poll is the first to show the president's lead under seven points there. On the cautionary side, FHQ will await additional data indicating/confirming a (not illogically) close race in Connecticut. After all, there has been past data to back up that assertion and we should expect, given movement in other states, some shift toward Romney there. But we don't have enough data to suggest that Connecticut is anything more than what New Jersey was in 2004: a probably reliable blue state tempting the Republican campaign to pay more attention to it.
Massachusetts:
Even with the margin having nearly halved since the last WBUR survey of the Bay state just a week and a half ago, Massachusetts is seemingly safely blue for the Obama campaign. However, as was the case with Connecticut above, if the expectation is that the Romney debate effect will be more or less uniform across states, then things have really shifted in Massachusetts. Still, the move is worth noting even in a strongly blue state.
Minnesota:
Unlike the two strong blue states immediately above, Minnesota has resisted the post-debate swing toward Romney at least in regard to the poll-over-poll comparison between PPP surveys. Since the last (mid-September) poll, Obama gained a couple of points and Romney lost one. It is a minimal change overall, and the results are consistent with pre-debate surveys of the Land of 10,000 Lakes. But this is also the only post-debate survey we have access to in Minnesota. Other firms may offer a different account of the state of the race there.
Nevada:
Things are all tied up in Nevada (...at least according to Rasmussen). That result is consistent with the only other post-debate survey of the Silver state from Gravis. And while those two polls, together, have not been enough to fundamentally shift things in Nevada, it is worth noting that had FHQ not lowered the cutpoints between categories last week, we would be talking about how Nevada had jumped into the Toss Up Obama category. Yet, if the current polling arc toward Romney continues, such a move probably won't be too far off. FHQ did want to take a moment to point out the fact that change may be masking some category movement toward the Republican nominee in some states. Nevada is the only state so far to fall into that group, but we will be sure to indicate when that happens in the future. Given the way things are moving, New Hampshire could potentially be the next such state.
New Hampshire:
In a poll that picked up on the day that the immediately previous WMUR poll came out of the field, the overall margin between the candidates dropped by nine points. That seems like a significant shift except for a couple of related reasons. First, the previous WMUR survey was -- at Obama +15 -- an outlier. The margin was overinflated and set up nicely for a big post-debate surge in the opposite direction. However (and secondly), more than half of the data for this poll was gathered prior to the first presidential debate last week. Given the reality of those two conflicting factors, the nine point shift is slightly more impressive.
North Carolina:
Well, the Tarheel state has provided us with a double digit margin in Romney's favor before and Gravis' first foray into the state approaches that level as well. Is this poll an outlier? Probably, but not nearly to the same extent as the early September Civitas poll reference above. Things are moving in Romney's direction in North Carolina as elsewhere, but that has meant a gradual subsidence of Obama leads and the emergence of more recent polls showing a Romney advantage in the 1-4 point range. In defense of Gravis, it very well could be that it is on the upper end of a new range, but we'll need more data to make that determination.
North Dakota:
Add one new and one dated poll to the small set of polls out of the Peace Garden state. The most recent and only post-debate survey from Mason-Dixon does not show any decided shift toward Romney; only a modest one point jump. Rest assured, though, despite little or not shift, North Dakota is not in any danger of being anything other than a solid Romney state on November 6.
Ohio:
The New Hampshire poll looks good on the surface for the president, but given the caveat described above, the CNN survey of the Buckeye state may be the lone bright spot for the incumbent. The poll may be a bit rosy but is not completely inconsistent with the scant though comparatively robust set of post-debate polling data. Obama's share of support in the CNN poll is in line with where Rasmussen charted it on the day after the debate last week. Romney's share is slightly under the Rasmussen mark, but both are running above where the FHQ weighted average level of support has the governor at the moment. We just need more data. The ARG poll largely mirrors the We Ask America poll from last week as well; a small Romney lead. This is likely the range in which the true levels of support for the candidates reside right now.
Pennsylvania:
FHQ was skeptical in the face of the Susquehanna poll released yesterday. The firm has tended to have though not always had results that were more favorable to Romney when compared to a long list of surveys indicating a margin in the Keystone state in the Obama +6-7 area. Without further data backing up a much closer race the skepticism was not unwarranted. But today's Siena release provides Susquehanna with some relief, pointing toward a race within a few points. Granted, Siena has a very high number of undecided voters for this late in the race and as a result understates both candidates' shares of support in the FHQ weighted averages. It will take a lot of data to move Pennsylvania into range of being on the Watch List, much less moving into the toss up category. [And yes, that may be a flaw in the formula here. But recall that FHQ likes being conservative. There's a trade-off between blowing in the wind of polling fluctuations or moving when a real consistent move has occurred.]
With no polling releases out of Florida today, the best chance to see some -- the first -- change to the overall electoral vote tally was dashed. Yet, the compression of the Ohio-Colorado group of toss up states continued. That compression, as we noted yesterday, is coupled with an overall movement toward Romney. The order of those states has to this point remained the same on the Electoral College Spectrum below. Meanwhile North Dakota jumped five spots over in the order toward the partisan line separating each candidate's list of states. And yeah, Massachusetts and Maryland switched places again. That is less significant as a move than it is as an indication that the two are quite closely huddled together way out in safe Obama land in the far left column below.
| The Electoral College Spectrum1 | ||||
| VT-3(6)2 | WA-12(158) | NV-6(257) | AZ-11(167) | MS-6(58) |
| HI-4(10) | NJ-14(172) | OH-183(275/281) | MT-3(156) | KY-8(52) |
| RI-4(14) | CT-7(179) | IA-6(281/263) | IN-11(153) | AL-9(44) |
| NY-29(43) | NM-5(184) | VA-13(294/257) | GA-16(142) | KS-6(35) |
| MD-10(53) | MN-10(194) | CO-9(303/244) | SC-9(126) | AR-6(29) |
| MA-11(64) | OR-7(201) | FL-29(332/235) | NE-5(117) | AK-3(23) |
| IL-20(84) | PA-20(221) | NC-15(206) | ND-3(112) | OK-7(20) |
| CA-55(139) | MI-16(237) | SD-3(191) | TX-38(109) | ID-4(13) |
| DE-3(142) | WI-10(247) | MO-10(188) | WV-5(71) | WY-3(9) |
| ME-4(146) | NH-4(251) | TN-11(178) | LA-8(66) | UT-6(6) |
| 1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
There were new polls in both Nevada and Ohio, but neither did enough to change either state's position on the Watch List or remove either altogether. Additionally, there were no new states with new polling data out today that threatened to jump onto the list. It was a status quo day. ...but only on the Watch List.
| The Watch List1 | |||
| State | Switch | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | from Strong Romney | to Lean Romney | |
| Minnesota | from Strong Obama | to Lean Obama | |
| Montana | from Strong Romney | to Lean Romney | |
| Nevada | from Lean Obama | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Ohio | from Toss Up Obama | to Lean Obama | |
| 1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction. | |||
Please see:
Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/8/12)
The Electoral College Map (10/6/12)
The Electoral College Map (10/5/12)
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12 Ekim 2012 Cuma
Alabama and Mississippi: Spin
To contact us Click HERE
What a night! For the third time this primary season, an ostensibly certain Romney march to the nomination turned out to hold a sizeable skirmish. If Romney is Napoleon, last night was Borodino. The question we're now forced to ask: What will be the state of Moscow (Tampa and the Republican National Convention) when Romney finally gets there?
With Santorum's double-victory in the south, and Gingrich's double runner-up, and Romney's double-third, how will each of the candidates spin these results in the coming days? Santorum and Gingrich's deficits actually grew, so the primary standings look rather similar. For further reference, here's the upcoming Republican Primary schedule:
March 17: Missouri (Caucus)--52 (actually counts this time)
March 18: Puerto Rico (Caucus)--23 (Winner Take All)
March 20: Illinois (indescribable)--69 (big one)
March 24: Louisiana (primary)--46 (proportional, southern)
April 3:
Wisconsin (primary)--42 (Winner Take All)
Maryland (primary)--37 (Winner Take All)
Washington DC (primary)--19 (Winner Take All)
=98 on April 3
Then a big break until April 24's New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island primaries, worth 231 delegates combined.
On to the spin, in descending order of finish in the southern states. And heck, how about some movie quotes for each spin?
The Santorum Spin
Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!
After Super Tuesday, things looked rough for Santorum. Romney won a majority of the states. He extended his delegate lead. He won primaries and caucuses. He was the only candidate winning states in multiple regions of the US. Rick Santorum was on his last legs as his poll numbers continued to flatten while Romney pulled away.
And then March 13 happened. Moving forward, Santorum will repeatedly point to the current primary map. Mitt Romney has yet to win a state in middle or southern America. (The only possible exception--Virginia--was a state where only Romney and Ron Paul were on the ballot, and still Romney couldn't win a supermajority.) How can the Romney Campaign continue to claim inevitability for the Republican nomination when he does so poorly in Republican states? It's wholly nonsensical. Last night, 70 percent of two conservative states voted against the so-called "inevitable" nominee. That's unprecedented in primary history this late into the primary season, barring the anomalous home states of the favorite's opponents.
Simply, Mitt Romney cannot be considered inevitable, and the Republicans in the blue states will eventually come to this realization. Last night was the tipping point toward that shift in thought. Santorum won't catch Romney, but he'll stop Romney from reaching 1,144 delegates. Moreover, Santorum will have all the momentum after the primary season and can therefore make a serious challenge to Romney at August's Republican National Convention.
The Gingrich Spin
I love the smell of napalm in the morning. It smells like victory.
Gingrich is a fully loaded, erratically aimed, potentially lethal weapon, attempting to destroy anything in its path. He lobs grenades at Mitt Romney's position as the media's candidate. He sprays bullets at and around Rick Santorum in an attempt to be a more legitimate challenge to Romney and the standard-bearer of conservatives. To serve both ends, he's continually dropping napalm across the entire field of the Republican Party, hurting its chances to line up behind either candidate before the convention.
And if his napalm attack gets the primary to the convention? That would be a victory for Newt Gingrich. After the primary season, he's counting on a "whole new conversation"--two months for delegates to debate who the best nominee would be to stand up to President Obama. Gingrich thinks that in such a conversation, he comes out on top.
Short of that, if Gingrich amasses a few hundred delegates and neither Romney nor Santorum reach 1,144 before the convention, Gingrich is in the position of a "kingmaker." How glorious would that be for Gingrich--Romney and Santorum wooing him, offering untold benefits ranging anywhere from national chairman to cabinet position to the vice-presidency. He might enjoy that more than actually being President!
The Romney Spin
Just keep swimming. Just keep swimming.
It's not as bad as it looks. I swear. The Real Clear Politics Standings:
1. Romney--495 (+40 from before Tuesday)
2. Santorum--234 (+35)
4. Gingrich--142 (+25)
3. Paul--64 (NC)
Of the 935 delegates projected thus far, Romney has won 52.94 percent. There are still 1,351 delegates left to allocate. Romney needs to win 649 of those to get to 1,144. That's 48 percent of the remaining delegates, below the pace Romney has set thus far. Moreover, almost all remaining "winner-take-all" states favor Romney, meaning he only needs to win about 40 percent of the delegates from other contests. Only a few southern states remain, as do many superdelegates, all of which will run to Romney once he's in position to secure 1,144.
So, let's take a look at the primary calendar, shown earlier in this post. Santorum will win Missouri, but then Romney will take Puerto Rico (winner-take-all) and sizeable Illinois (proportional, but Chicago will act as Romney's savior). Then a close race in Louisiana on March 24 will mark the end of a hectic stretch. The next set of primaries are ten days later, when Wisconsin, Maryland, and DC will go to the polls--all winner-take-all--with Romney winning at least two of them. Then a three-week break before the April 24's New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island primaries, worth 231 delegates combined. They're all proportional. Santorum will win Pennsylvania, but Romney will take larger New York and the other three. This would give Romney six or seven of the most recent eight contests, and eight, nine, or ten of the most recent eleven. Momentum will be back in his corner.
By then, in terms of delegate count, Romney will surpass 800 delegates with 14 states remaining, including Texas (155 delegates), California (172 delegates), New Jersey (50 delegates), and Utah (40 delegates). He has a strong chance to win all of New Jersey (Thank you, Chris Christie) and Utah (thank you, Joseph Smith) and their winner-take-all rules, so we can estimate Romney at 900 without even counting the 200-plus he'll get from Texas and California. Thus, he eclipses 1,100, and I haven't even accounted for North Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia, Nebraska, Oregon, Kentucky, Arkansas, South Dakota, or Montana, which shoul talk on another hundred.
Of course, it's impossible to accurately prognosticate this many states that far out. After Santorum wins in Missouri on Saturday, maybe Romney's numbers collapse across the board and he won't win by the margins estimated. And if Santorum ever "steals" a Romney state--say, Illinois or New York--then the numbers really would have to be crunched again.
That order for Santorum, however, is tall. So what's Romney's plan?
Just keep swimming.
The PPFA Spin
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here! This is the War Room!
It honestly seems like the Republican Party has no idea what to do. They want unity, but can't decide on a candidate. They want strength, but only if they get their guy. They want Romney more than anyone else, but not as much as they don't want Romney. They don't want their candidates to fight, but negative ads are moving polls. A party that once prided itself on being organized and in control can't decide on their last two candidates, to say nothing of their nominee. All the while, Romney marches on, hoping that math trumps momentum.
Prediction: Ultimately, Napoleon reached Moscow, only to find it flames. Tampa will be in slightly better condition.
But it gets cold in eastern Europe, Romney. You better bundle up.
With Santorum's double-victory in the south, and Gingrich's double runner-up, and Romney's double-third, how will each of the candidates spin these results in the coming days? Santorum and Gingrich's deficits actually grew, so the primary standings look rather similar. For further reference, here's the upcoming Republican Primary schedule:
March 17: Missouri (Caucus)--52 (actually counts this time)
March 18: Puerto Rico (Caucus)--23 (Winner Take All)
March 20: Illinois (indescribable)--69 (big one)
March 24: Louisiana (primary)--46 (proportional, southern)
April 3:
Wisconsin (primary)--42 (Winner Take All)
Maryland (primary)--37 (Winner Take All)
Washington DC (primary)--19 (Winner Take All)
=98 on April 3
Then a big break until April 24's New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island primaries, worth 231 delegates combined.
On to the spin, in descending order of finish in the southern states. And heck, how about some movie quotes for each spin?
The Santorum Spin
Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!
After Super Tuesday, things looked rough for Santorum. Romney won a majority of the states. He extended his delegate lead. He won primaries and caucuses. He was the only candidate winning states in multiple regions of the US. Rick Santorum was on his last legs as his poll numbers continued to flatten while Romney pulled away.
And then March 13 happened. Moving forward, Santorum will repeatedly point to the current primary map. Mitt Romney has yet to win a state in middle or southern America. (The only possible exception--Virginia--was a state where only Romney and Ron Paul were on the ballot, and still Romney couldn't win a supermajority.) How can the Romney Campaign continue to claim inevitability for the Republican nomination when he does so poorly in Republican states? It's wholly nonsensical. Last night, 70 percent of two conservative states voted against the so-called "inevitable" nominee. That's unprecedented in primary history this late into the primary season, barring the anomalous home states of the favorite's opponents.
Simply, Mitt Romney cannot be considered inevitable, and the Republicans in the blue states will eventually come to this realization. Last night was the tipping point toward that shift in thought. Santorum won't catch Romney, but he'll stop Romney from reaching 1,144 delegates. Moreover, Santorum will have all the momentum after the primary season and can therefore make a serious challenge to Romney at August's Republican National Convention.
The Gingrich Spin
I love the smell of napalm in the morning. It smells like victory.
Gingrich is a fully loaded, erratically aimed, potentially lethal weapon, attempting to destroy anything in its path. He lobs grenades at Mitt Romney's position as the media's candidate. He sprays bullets at and around Rick Santorum in an attempt to be a more legitimate challenge to Romney and the standard-bearer of conservatives. To serve both ends, he's continually dropping napalm across the entire field of the Republican Party, hurting its chances to line up behind either candidate before the convention.
And if his napalm attack gets the primary to the convention? That would be a victory for Newt Gingrich. After the primary season, he's counting on a "whole new conversation"--two months for delegates to debate who the best nominee would be to stand up to President Obama. Gingrich thinks that in such a conversation, he comes out on top.
Short of that, if Gingrich amasses a few hundred delegates and neither Romney nor Santorum reach 1,144 before the convention, Gingrich is in the position of a "kingmaker." How glorious would that be for Gingrich--Romney and Santorum wooing him, offering untold benefits ranging anywhere from national chairman to cabinet position to the vice-presidency. He might enjoy that more than actually being President!
The Romney Spin
Just keep swimming. Just keep swimming.
It's not as bad as it looks. I swear. The Real Clear Politics Standings:
1. Romney--495 (+40 from before Tuesday)
2. Santorum--234 (+35)
4. Gingrich--142 (+25)
3. Paul--64 (NC)
Of the 935 delegates projected thus far, Romney has won 52.94 percent. There are still 1,351 delegates left to allocate. Romney needs to win 649 of those to get to 1,144. That's 48 percent of the remaining delegates, below the pace Romney has set thus far. Moreover, almost all remaining "winner-take-all" states favor Romney, meaning he only needs to win about 40 percent of the delegates from other contests. Only a few southern states remain, as do many superdelegates, all of which will run to Romney once he's in position to secure 1,144.
So, let's take a look at the primary calendar, shown earlier in this post. Santorum will win Missouri, but then Romney will take Puerto Rico (winner-take-all) and sizeable Illinois (proportional, but Chicago will act as Romney's savior). Then a close race in Louisiana on March 24 will mark the end of a hectic stretch. The next set of primaries are ten days later, when Wisconsin, Maryland, and DC will go to the polls--all winner-take-all--with Romney winning at least two of them. Then a three-week break before the April 24's New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island primaries, worth 231 delegates combined. They're all proportional. Santorum will win Pennsylvania, but Romney will take larger New York and the other three. This would give Romney six or seven of the most recent eight contests, and eight, nine, or ten of the most recent eleven. Momentum will be back in his corner.
By then, in terms of delegate count, Romney will surpass 800 delegates with 14 states remaining, including Texas (155 delegates), California (172 delegates), New Jersey (50 delegates), and Utah (40 delegates). He has a strong chance to win all of New Jersey (Thank you, Chris Christie) and Utah (thank you, Joseph Smith) and their winner-take-all rules, so we can estimate Romney at 900 without even counting the 200-plus he'll get from Texas and California. Thus, he eclipses 1,100, and I haven't even accounted for North Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia, Nebraska, Oregon, Kentucky, Arkansas, South Dakota, or Montana, which shoul talk on another hundred.
Of course, it's impossible to accurately prognosticate this many states that far out. After Santorum wins in Missouri on Saturday, maybe Romney's numbers collapse across the board and he won't win by the margins estimated. And if Santorum ever "steals" a Romney state--say, Illinois or New York--then the numbers really would have to be crunched again.
That order for Santorum, however, is tall. So what's Romney's plan?
Just keep swimming.
The PPFA Spin
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here! This is the War Room!
It honestly seems like the Republican Party has no idea what to do. They want unity, but can't decide on a candidate. They want strength, but only if they get their guy. They want Romney more than anyone else, but not as much as they don't want Romney. They don't want their candidates to fight, but negative ads are moving polls. A party that once prided itself on being organized and in control can't decide on their last two candidates, to say nothing of their nominee. All the while, Romney marches on, hoping that math trumps momentum.
Prediction: Ultimately, Napoleon reached Moscow, only to find it flames. Tampa will be in slightly better condition.
But it gets cold in eastern Europe, Romney. You better bundle up.
Weekend Primaries Preview
To contact us Click HERE
(Note: This weekend, IC will be quite busy attending several events, driving between them, and speaking in the third person. Therefore, he'll have little time to update PPFA. Thus, allow today's post to serve as a preview for the entire weekend. Brief, sporadic posts over the next couple of days are not impossible, but don't expect full analysis until next week. He feels awful about this and promises you a full refund.)
Sooner or later, Rick Santorum will have to make a dent in Mitt Romney's delegate lead. Wait, not later. Just sooner. These moral victories are all well and good, but even with this week's triumph in Alabama and Michigan, he still lost ground, as Romney's narrow losses in the south were more than made up by big wins in Hawaii and the American Samoa.
Looking ahead, Santorum has a decent chance to earn a near split with Romney the rest of the way, which sounds like a good thing, though it's actually not. We can split the remaining schedule up into four groups, and we find that in each of those four groups, Romney and Santorum are about even in strength. 1) For example, the next eight days have four primaries. Two favor Romney (Puerto Rico, Illinois), two favor Santorum (Missouri, Louisiana). 2) Ten days later--April 3--Santorum can win Wisconsin, the biggest contest of the day, while staying close in Maryland and losing lightly weighted Washington DC. 3) Of the next eight states after that, four are in Romney territory (New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware), and four are in Santorum's (Pennsylvania, North Carolina, West Virginia, Indiana). 4) Afterward, of the final eleven states, either candidate can realistically win five or six of them.
But that won't get the job done for Rick Santorum. Not only would he not be able to catch Romney, but if Romney performs as expected in those areas, he will successfully reach 1,144 delegates. That's why, even with these moral victories like those this past week, Santorum must find a way to eat into that Romney delegate lead. Can he do that this weekend?
Probably not. Here are the four contests between now and April 3:
March 17: Missouri (nonbinding Caucus)--52
March 18: Puerto Rico (Proportional Caucus)--23
March 20: Illinois (indescribable)--69 (big one)
March 24: Louisiana (primary)--46 (proportional, southern)
We can expect Santorum to win big in Missouri. Unlike February 7's Missouri Primary, which was not counted in the standings by any outlets, there's a chance tomorrow's Missouri Caucus, even if it's also nonbinding, will be counted. In Puerto Rico, Romney's expected to continue his domination of island US territories, especially after Santorum's slip-up concerning Puerto Rico's language identity. The big number here in Puerto Rico is 50 percent. If Romney breaks it, he wins all 23 delegates. If he falls short, Santorum will pick up proportional delegates. If Santorum fails to pick up those proportional delegates, Romney's sweep of all 23 delegates will make up for any losses he suffers to Santorum in Missouri.
With 75 delegates up for grabs in the two contests, I can't imagine the narrative will change if both candidates finish within a handful of each other, which looks likely. What Santorum needs to do is somehow set up a shock in Illinois. If he can win Missouri big and stay close in Puerto Rico, he might be a player in Illinois. If he pulls off another surprise in Illinois, he'll definitely win Louisiana. That would make five of six contests--including a big Romney state--and he would finally have momentum not only in narrative, but delegates as well.
Of course, a win in Illinois is unlikely. A much more reasonable scenario is that the two candidates split the four contests in half, and that just won't get it done for Rick Santorum. Sooner or later, he's going to have to make a dent in Romney's lead. No, not later. Sooner.
Or else it'll be too late.
Sooner or later, Rick Santorum will have to make a dent in Mitt Romney's delegate lead. Wait, not later. Just sooner. These moral victories are all well and good, but even with this week's triumph in Alabama and Michigan, he still lost ground, as Romney's narrow losses in the south were more than made up by big wins in Hawaii and the American Samoa.
Looking ahead, Santorum has a decent chance to earn a near split with Romney the rest of the way, which sounds like a good thing, though it's actually not. We can split the remaining schedule up into four groups, and we find that in each of those four groups, Romney and Santorum are about even in strength. 1) For example, the next eight days have four primaries. Two favor Romney (Puerto Rico, Illinois), two favor Santorum (Missouri, Louisiana). 2) Ten days later--April 3--Santorum can win Wisconsin, the biggest contest of the day, while staying close in Maryland and losing lightly weighted Washington DC. 3) Of the next eight states after that, four are in Romney territory (New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware), and four are in Santorum's (Pennsylvania, North Carolina, West Virginia, Indiana). 4) Afterward, of the final eleven states, either candidate can realistically win five or six of them.
But that won't get the job done for Rick Santorum. Not only would he not be able to catch Romney, but if Romney performs as expected in those areas, he will successfully reach 1,144 delegates. That's why, even with these moral victories like those this past week, Santorum must find a way to eat into that Romney delegate lead. Can he do that this weekend?
Probably not. Here are the four contests between now and April 3:
March 17: Missouri (nonbinding Caucus)--52
March 18: Puerto Rico (Proportional Caucus)--23
March 20: Illinois (indescribable)--69 (big one)
March 24: Louisiana (primary)--46 (proportional, southern)
We can expect Santorum to win big in Missouri. Unlike February 7's Missouri Primary, which was not counted in the standings by any outlets, there's a chance tomorrow's Missouri Caucus, even if it's also nonbinding, will be counted. In Puerto Rico, Romney's expected to continue his domination of island US territories, especially after Santorum's slip-up concerning Puerto Rico's language identity. The big number here in Puerto Rico is 50 percent. If Romney breaks it, he wins all 23 delegates. If he falls short, Santorum will pick up proportional delegates. If Santorum fails to pick up those proportional delegates, Romney's sweep of all 23 delegates will make up for any losses he suffers to Santorum in Missouri.
With 75 delegates up for grabs in the two contests, I can't imagine the narrative will change if both candidates finish within a handful of each other, which looks likely. What Santorum needs to do is somehow set up a shock in Illinois. If he can win Missouri big and stay close in Puerto Rico, he might be a player in Illinois. If he pulls off another surprise in Illinois, he'll definitely win Louisiana. That would make five of six contests--including a big Romney state--and he would finally have momentum not only in narrative, but delegates as well.
Of course, a win in Illinois is unlikely. A much more reasonable scenario is that the two candidates split the four contests in half, and that just won't get it done for Rick Santorum. Sooner or later, he's going to have to make a dent in Romney's lead. No, not later. Sooner.
Or else it'll be too late.
Romney Wins Puerto Rico
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As expected, Mitt Romney has won the Puerto Rico caucuses. Since he'll easily crack 50 percent of the vote--with one-quarter of precincts reporting, he's won 83 percent of the vote--he'll capture all 20 bound delegates. It looks like Rick Santorum will have to wait another two days to pull off the surprise wins he needs to truly shift the momentum of the 2012 Republican Primary.
I'll have updated primary standings tomorrow, and a look forward on Tuesday, including a preview of Tuesday's Illinois Primary, which ranks with Michigan and Ohio as one of the most important contests we've seen since January.
I'll have updated primary standings tomorrow, and a look forward on Tuesday, including a preview of Tuesday's Illinois Primary, which ranks with Michigan and Ohio as one of the most important contests we've seen since January.
Updated GOP Primary Standings, March 19
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(Note: If you came here via a google search, or even if you didn't, these standings are outdated. Click here for the latest standings and coverage.)
Here are the latest republican delegate projections, now factoring in the Puerto Rico caucuses.
CNN Standings
1. Romney--518
2. Santorum-239
3. Gingrich--139
4. Paul--69
Real Clear Politics Standings
1. Romney--516
2. Santorum--236
4. Gingrich--142
3. Paul--67
Official (not counting unbound delegates)
1. Romney--454
2. Santorum--173
3. Gingrich--137
4. Paul--27
I'll be back tomorrow with a look at the important Illinois Primary.
Here are the latest republican delegate projections, now factoring in the Puerto Rico caucuses.
CNN Standings
1. Romney--518
2. Santorum-239
3. Gingrich--139
4. Paul--69
Real Clear Politics Standings
1. Romney--516
2. Santorum--236
4. Gingrich--142
3. Paul--67
Official (not counting unbound delegates)
1. Romney--454
2. Santorum--173
3. Gingrich--137
4. Paul--27
I'll be back tomorrow with a look at the important Illinois Primary.
D'oh! The Etch-A-Sketch Seen 'Round the World
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"You could not have found a more perfect illustration of why people distrust Romney than to have his (adviser) say that the Etch A Sketch allows you to erase everything in the general election." - Newt Gingrich, yesterday, Louisiana
Seriously, Romney Campaign? Seriously? I mean, you're going to be the nominee and everything, but can you please get out of your own way? This Etch A Sketch thing... you just can't make it up.
What's the number one criticism of Mitt Romney from the Republican Party's conservative base? That he's not actually a conservative! When he wanted to be a United States Senator from liberal Massachusetts in 1994, he ran as a moderate. It's only when he started running for the Republican nomination for the presidency that he became a conservative. That smell of fish doesn't come from Cape Cod. Something's obviously convenient about the evolution of Mitt Romney's ideology.
Romney, consequently, has basically spent five years assuring the GOP that he's actually a conservative now. ("Honest! I swear! Cross my heart!") Finally, on Tuesday night, he won the Illinois Primary, a contest that basically assured Romney of the inevitability tag for the rest of the nomination process. He did it. He finally pulled it off. Whether he had legitimately moved to the right or he successfully pulled the wool over conservatives' eyes, he was going to be the nominee of the Republican Party. It worked. He won.
And then yesterday happened. Now, I hesitate to say this will have any real impact on his inevitability. It won't. But it still makes for an entertaining development that, at the very least, cost him Louisiana on Saturday. When one of Romney's top advisers, Eric Fehrnstrom, engages in this back and forth with CNN's John Fugelsang, and you consider all that Romney has had to do and say to convince the party of his conservative stripes, you can see why this is pretty darn funny. Here's the video which reveals the dialogue in question:
Fugelsang (CNN): "Is there a concern [that] Santorum and Gingrich's attacks might force the governor so far to the right that it might hurt him with moderate voters in the general election?"
Fehrnstrom (Romney Campaign) responded: "I think you hit a reset button for the fall campaign. Everything changes. It's almost like an Etch A Sketch. You can kind of shake it up and restart all over again."
In other words, Romney says what he needs to say in order to win the Republican nomination, but then when it's the general election, he'll say something else--something moderate--which is the number one thing conservative Republicans had been fearing. You can't make this stuff up.
His rivals, both campaigning in Louisiana, quickly pounced. Rick Santorum has actually been levying this kind of criticism for about a week now, especially after Romney seemingly reversed his position on Puerto Rico's English language requirement for state-hood. ("We stood up for the truth in Puerto Rico. Mitt Romney pandered." This development, therefore, was right in his wheelhouse.
First, his campaign posted a Twitter photo of Santorum using the toy, captioning that the candidate was "studying up on (Romney's) policy positions." Santorum later told the Louisiana audience that Romney "will say what he needs to say to win the election before him, and if he has to say something different because it's a different election and a different group of voters, he will say that, too." Then he drove the point home:
"Well, that should be comforting to all of you who are voting in this primary." With that, Romney lost Louisiana.
Newt Gingrich piled on at his own Bayou State rally. "You have to stand for something that lasts longer than this," he said, holding up his own Etch a Sketch. (Here's what I want to know: did the toy's sales see a bump yesterday? They must have, right?)
More Gingrich: "Here's Gov. Romney's staff, they don't even have the decency to wait until they get the nomination to explain to us how they'll sell us out."
And from that link, more Santorum: "Gov. Romney's campaign had a real moment of truth today. . . . It actually revealed what everybody knew or suspected but now know: Gov. Romney is interested in saying whatever is necessary to win the election and when the game changes, he'll change."
Ouch!
Of course, it should be said that it's not at all uncommon for a nominee of either party to move to the center once the general election season begins. It's just that when conservatives constantly struggle with Romney's past views on social issues, this kind of comment really sticks out. And perhaps the biggest impact of this slip-up is not that it will affect the primary, but that if and when Romney does move to the center, conservatives will feel all the more betrayed, and perhaps even desert the candidate on Election Day.
If only the Romney Campaign could erase yesterday and start anew.
Seriously, Romney Campaign? Seriously? I mean, you're going to be the nominee and everything, but can you please get out of your own way? This Etch A Sketch thing... you just can't make it up.
What's the number one criticism of Mitt Romney from the Republican Party's conservative base? That he's not actually a conservative! When he wanted to be a United States Senator from liberal Massachusetts in 1994, he ran as a moderate. It's only when he started running for the Republican nomination for the presidency that he became a conservative. That smell of fish doesn't come from Cape Cod. Something's obviously convenient about the evolution of Mitt Romney's ideology.
Romney, consequently, has basically spent five years assuring the GOP that he's actually a conservative now. ("Honest! I swear! Cross my heart!") Finally, on Tuesday night, he won the Illinois Primary, a contest that basically assured Romney of the inevitability tag for the rest of the nomination process. He did it. He finally pulled it off. Whether he had legitimately moved to the right or he successfully pulled the wool over conservatives' eyes, he was going to be the nominee of the Republican Party. It worked. He won.
And then yesterday happened. Now, I hesitate to say this will have any real impact on his inevitability. It won't. But it still makes for an entertaining development that, at the very least, cost him Louisiana on Saturday. When one of Romney's top advisers, Eric Fehrnstrom, engages in this back and forth with CNN's John Fugelsang, and you consider all that Romney has had to do and say to convince the party of his conservative stripes, you can see why this is pretty darn funny. Here's the video which reveals the dialogue in question:
Fugelsang (CNN): "Is there a concern [that] Santorum and Gingrich's attacks might force the governor so far to the right that it might hurt him with moderate voters in the general election?"
Fehrnstrom (Romney Campaign) responded: "I think you hit a reset button for the fall campaign. Everything changes. It's almost like an Etch A Sketch. You can kind of shake it up and restart all over again."
In other words, Romney says what he needs to say in order to win the Republican nomination, but then when it's the general election, he'll say something else--something moderate--which is the number one thing conservative Republicans had been fearing. You can't make this stuff up.
His rivals, both campaigning in Louisiana, quickly pounced. Rick Santorum has actually been levying this kind of criticism for about a week now, especially after Romney seemingly reversed his position on Puerto Rico's English language requirement for state-hood. ("We stood up for the truth in Puerto Rico. Mitt Romney pandered." This development, therefore, was right in his wheelhouse.
First, his campaign posted a Twitter photo of Santorum using the toy, captioning that the candidate was "studying up on (Romney's) policy positions." Santorum later told the Louisiana audience that Romney "will say what he needs to say to win the election before him, and if he has to say something different because it's a different election and a different group of voters, he will say that, too." Then he drove the point home:
"Well, that should be comforting to all of you who are voting in this primary." With that, Romney lost Louisiana.
Newt Gingrich piled on at his own Bayou State rally. "You have to stand for something that lasts longer than this," he said, holding up his own Etch a Sketch. (Here's what I want to know: did the toy's sales see a bump yesterday? They must have, right?)
More Gingrich: "Here's Gov. Romney's staff, they don't even have the decency to wait until they get the nomination to explain to us how they'll sell us out."
And from that link, more Santorum: "Gov. Romney's campaign had a real moment of truth today. . . . It actually revealed what everybody knew or suspected but now know: Gov. Romney is interested in saying whatever is necessary to win the election and when the game changes, he'll change."
Ouch!
Of course, it should be said that it's not at all uncommon for a nominee of either party to move to the center once the general election season begins. It's just that when conservatives constantly struggle with Romney's past views on social issues, this kind of comment really sticks out. And perhaps the biggest impact of this slip-up is not that it will affect the primary, but that if and when Romney does move to the center, conservatives will feel all the more betrayed, and perhaps even desert the candidate on Election Day.
If only the Romney Campaign could erase yesterday and start anew.
11 Ekim 2012 Perşembe
Catch Up Time
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As FHQ mentioned via Twitter earlier this week, life (and death) and a not all that unexpected uptick in the frequency of polling releases have formed a perfect storm of delay around here. Very simply, I'm behind. However, FHQ will be in catch up mode this weekend. To the extent I can churn them out, you will see a semi-steady stream of outdated updates to the electoral college map starting with the survey data released on September 20. I sincerely hope to be fully updated by Monday and then rollout a map with redefined (constrained) categories on Tuesday; just in time for the debates.
As a means of review, that will mean:
1) The "strong" category will shift from being states with averages over 10% to those above 9%.
2) "Lean" states will now be those with weighted averages between 4-9% instead of between 5-10%.
3) Most consequentially, "toss up" states will be those with averages below 4%.
Finally, let me apologize for the slowdown in posting and thank you all for your patience as we bring things back up to date.
--Josh
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/28/12)
The Electoral College Map (9/27/12)
The Electoral College Map (9/26/12)
Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.
As a means of review, that will mean:
1) The "strong" category will shift from being states with averages over 10% to those above 9%.
2) "Lean" states will now be those with weighted averages between 4-9% instead of between 5-10%.
3) Most consequentially, "toss up" states will be those with averages below 4%.
Finally, let me apologize for the slowdown in posting and thank you all for your patience as we bring things back up to date.
--Josh
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/28/12)
The Electoral College Map (9/27/12)
The Electoral College Map (9/26/12)
Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.
The Electoral College Map (10/3/12)
To contact us Click HERE
Debate day!
Wednesday found quite a number of polling organizations getting new, state-level polling releases in under the wire to set pre-debate baselines of support. It was mainly business as usual -- or as close to that "new normal" post-convention -- with ten new surveys from ten states.
Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona:
With rare exception, Mitt Romney has consistently been at or over the 50% mark in Arizona polling since he wrapped up the Republican nomination back in the spring. What's more, his competition has not really closed the gap; not in a consistent way anyway. That was the case again in the latest poll of the state from PPP. Romney was over a 50% share of support and Obama was mired back in the mid-40s. The poll confirmed what we already knew about Arizona. It is a Lean Romney state.
Florida:
Speaking of settling in to a new normal, Florida has bucked that trend in many ways. There have been some sporadic blips on the radar over the course of the year, but polling in the Sunshine state has fallen within a +/- 5 point range in either direction. The bulk of those have tipped toward the president, but not in a way that has allowed the FHQ weighted average to get very far out of reach to the Romney campaign. An Obama +1 from Marist/WSJ/NBC did very little to break the established average.
Missouri:
A day after We Ask American found the Missouri presidential race within 3 points, a new PPP survey has Romney up double that in the Show Me state. Obama's share of support was the exact same across the two polls, and all the movement was on the Romney side. The better comparison may be to look at the previous August PPP survey. In the midst of the Republican convention (also post-Akin), the race favored Romney by 12 points. Poll-over-poll, then, there was a six point shift that was more about Obama support growing than Romney support ebbing. Despite all of that, Missouri is well within the Lean Romney category. These polls may have slightly calibrated that position, but have not shifted the state anywhere near to being the the competitive bellwether it has been in elections past or any more deeply into the Romney side of the ledger.
New Jersey:
The tale in the Garden state is that the polling there has spent much of the year in the low double digits. Just three of 19 2012 polls of New Jersey have found the Obama-Romney race within single digits. The president's position is strong there and that is not likely to change between now and election day.
North Carolina:
If the established range of polling results in North Carolina is +1 Obama to +4 Romney, then we have had bookends with the two extremes represented over the last two days. The latest is this +4 Romney from Rasmussen in the Tar Heel state today. Not to beat a dead horse here, but North Carolina is the one toss up state that has consistently been in Mitt Romney's column. And though it has remained closer a lot longer than FHQ personally expected it to, the Old North state is very likely to maintain that at least that distinction (...if not be joined by other toss up states).
Ohio:
If Florida is Obama +1 in the Marist poll above, it is perhaps a little difficult to imagine how Ohio could simultaneously be +8 for the president in a survey by the same firm. But that's the data we have here and it really isn't anything other than intra-firm statistical noise. Upper single digits results have popped up in the Buckeye state over the last week or so and this poll fits right into that category. Be that as it may, the FHQ weighted averages have not budged all that much. Sure, the average has ticked up close to the Lean/Toss Up line on the Obama side as a result of the addition of that data, but Ohio has not left the toss up area. However, it is moving in the wrong direction from the Romney campaign perspective. As we head into debate season, it is worth noting Ohio's position hovering around that Lean/Toss Up line.
Texas:
Thanks for checking in Texas. Still a strongly red state, huh? Let's put this Texas Lyceum survey in the confirming polling data category and move on, shall we?
Virginia:
The Old Dominion is another one of those states like Florida that has shown some deviation from an established and steady pattern of polling results. In Virginia, that has meant Obama's lead occasionally stretching into the upper single digits, but the preponderance of recent polls has pegged the president's advantage at around 1-4 points. That is a fairly well-established baseline heading into the next stage of big events that could alter the landscape of the race, the debates.
Washington:
See Texas, but shade the Evergreen state blue instead of red.
Wisconsin:
Compared to the immediately prior Marquette Law School survey of the Badger state, this one is actually an improvement for Governor Romney. But at Obama +11, it seems a little outside the bulk of most recent polling there (...though it is consistent with the We Ask America poll from a little more than a week ago). Those handful of polls and a subtle uptick in other post-convention polling margins in Wisconsin has the state's FHQ weighted average up almost a point since September 24. The polling in Wisconsin seems a tad more volatile than in some other states, but if we are drawing a line in the sand ahead of the debates, it looks like some of these recent polls in Wisconsin are setting a baseline that is apt to snap way back if the debates change the state of the race in any way.
Ohio and Wisconsin pushed the envelope the most in today's round of polling releases, but that did little to disrupt what has become commonplace around these parts: that 332-206 electoral college count on the map above. The group of toss up states has been whittled down now to just six states with a couple more (New Hampshire and Nevada) currently on the outside looking in. If this alignment and categorical breakdown holds until election day, Mitt Romney will have to sweep the toss up states to clear the 270 barrier. [Yes, he could cede Iowa or Colorado to the president and still get there, but that does not follow the established order of states on the Spectrum.]
Speaking of the Electoral College Spectrum, there were only minimal changes to it on the Romney side of the partisan line. Arizona and Missouri switched places (guarding either side of Tennessee) and Texas leapfrogged both Louisiana and Nebraska deeper into the Romney column.
The Watch List loses North Carolina on the day that opens the 2012 debate season. Now both of the closest states -- Florida and North Carolina -- are off the list. That means that the best shots for changing up the steady electoral college tally are just outside of the range for jumping across the partisan line on the Spectrum above and changing the constant 332-206 count that FHQ has had since mid-summer.
Please see:
Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.
Recent Posts:
2012 Debates: 1st Presidential Debate Open Thread
The Links (10/3/12): 2012 Debate Season
The Electoral College Map (10/2/12)
Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.
Wednesday found quite a number of polling organizations getting new, state-level polling releases in under the wire to set pre-debate baselines of support. It was mainly business as usual -- or as close to that "new normal" post-convention -- with ten new surveys from ten states.
| New State Polls (10/3/12) | |||||||||
| State | Poll | Date | Margin of Error | Sample | Obama | Romney | Undecided | Poll Margin | FHQ Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Public Policy Polling | 10/1-10/3 | +/- 4.0% | 595 likely voters | 44 | 53 | 3 | +9 | +7.20 |
| Florida | Marist/Wall Street Journal/NBC | 9/30-10/1 | +/- 3.3% | 890 likely voters | 47 | 46 | 6 | +1 | +1.29 |
| Missouri | Public Policy Polling | 10/1-10/3 | +/- 3.7% | 700 likely voters | 45 | 51 | 4 | +6 | +6.97 |
| New Jersey | Rutgers/Eagleton | 9/27-9/30 | +/- 3.8% | 645 likely voters | 56 | 39 | 4 | +17 | +13.18 |
| North Carolina | Rasmussen | 10/2 | +/- 4.5% | 500 likely voters | 47 | 51 | 1 | +4 | +1.02 |
| Ohio | Marist/Wall Street Journal/NBC | 9/30-10/1 | +/- 3.2% | 931 likely voters | 51 | 43 | 4 | +8 | +3.96 |
| Texas | Texas Lyceum | 9/10-9/26 | +/- 4.66% | 443 likely voters | 39 | 58 | 4 | +19 | +14.90 |
| Virginia | Marist/Wall Street Journal/NBC | 9/30-10/1 | +/- 3.1% | 969 likely voters | 48 | 46 | 5 | +2 | +3.18 |
| Washington | Survey USA | 9/28-9/30 | +/- 4.3% | 540 likely voters | 56 | 36 | 3 | +20 | +14.02 |
| Wisconsin | Marquette Law School | 9/27-9/30 | +/- 3.4% | 894 likely voters | 53 | 42 | 4 | +11 | +5.43 |
Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona:
With rare exception, Mitt Romney has consistently been at or over the 50% mark in Arizona polling since he wrapped up the Republican nomination back in the spring. What's more, his competition has not really closed the gap; not in a consistent way anyway. That was the case again in the latest poll of the state from PPP. Romney was over a 50% share of support and Obama was mired back in the mid-40s. The poll confirmed what we already knew about Arizona. It is a Lean Romney state.
Florida:
Speaking of settling in to a new normal, Florida has bucked that trend in many ways. There have been some sporadic blips on the radar over the course of the year, but polling in the Sunshine state has fallen within a +/- 5 point range in either direction. The bulk of those have tipped toward the president, but not in a way that has allowed the FHQ weighted average to get very far out of reach to the Romney campaign. An Obama +1 from Marist/WSJ/NBC did very little to break the established average.
Missouri:
A day after We Ask American found the Missouri presidential race within 3 points, a new PPP survey has Romney up double that in the Show Me state. Obama's share of support was the exact same across the two polls, and all the movement was on the Romney side. The better comparison may be to look at the previous August PPP survey. In the midst of the Republican convention (also post-Akin), the race favored Romney by 12 points. Poll-over-poll, then, there was a six point shift that was more about Obama support growing than Romney support ebbing. Despite all of that, Missouri is well within the Lean Romney category. These polls may have slightly calibrated that position, but have not shifted the state anywhere near to being the the competitive bellwether it has been in elections past or any more deeply into the Romney side of the ledger.
New Jersey:
The tale in the Garden state is that the polling there has spent much of the year in the low double digits. Just three of 19 2012 polls of New Jersey have found the Obama-Romney race within single digits. The president's position is strong there and that is not likely to change between now and election day.
North Carolina:
If the established range of polling results in North Carolina is +1 Obama to +4 Romney, then we have had bookends with the two extremes represented over the last two days. The latest is this +4 Romney from Rasmussen in the Tar Heel state today. Not to beat a dead horse here, but North Carolina is the one toss up state that has consistently been in Mitt Romney's column. And though it has remained closer a lot longer than FHQ personally expected it to, the Old North state is very likely to maintain that at least that distinction (...if not be joined by other toss up states).
Ohio:
If Florida is Obama +1 in the Marist poll above, it is perhaps a little difficult to imagine how Ohio could simultaneously be +8 for the president in a survey by the same firm. But that's the data we have here and it really isn't anything other than intra-firm statistical noise. Upper single digits results have popped up in the Buckeye state over the last week or so and this poll fits right into that category. Be that as it may, the FHQ weighted averages have not budged all that much. Sure, the average has ticked up close to the Lean/Toss Up line on the Obama side as a result of the addition of that data, but Ohio has not left the toss up area. However, it is moving in the wrong direction from the Romney campaign perspective. As we head into debate season, it is worth noting Ohio's position hovering around that Lean/Toss Up line.
Texas:
Thanks for checking in Texas. Still a strongly red state, huh? Let's put this Texas Lyceum survey in the confirming polling data category and move on, shall we?
Virginia:
The Old Dominion is another one of those states like Florida that has shown some deviation from an established and steady pattern of polling results. In Virginia, that has meant Obama's lead occasionally stretching into the upper single digits, but the preponderance of recent polls has pegged the president's advantage at around 1-4 points. That is a fairly well-established baseline heading into the next stage of big events that could alter the landscape of the race, the debates.
Washington:
See Texas, but shade the Evergreen state blue instead of red.
Wisconsin:
Compared to the immediately prior Marquette Law School survey of the Badger state, this one is actually an improvement for Governor Romney. But at Obama +11, it seems a little outside the bulk of most recent polling there (...though it is consistent with the We Ask America poll from a little more than a week ago). Those handful of polls and a subtle uptick in other post-convention polling margins in Wisconsin has the state's FHQ weighted average up almost a point since September 24. The polling in Wisconsin seems a tad more volatile than in some other states, but if we are drawing a line in the sand ahead of the debates, it looks like some of these recent polls in Wisconsin are setting a baseline that is apt to snap way back if the debates change the state of the race in any way.
Ohio and Wisconsin pushed the envelope the most in today's round of polling releases, but that did little to disrupt what has become commonplace around these parts: that 332-206 electoral college count on the map above. The group of toss up states has been whittled down now to just six states with a couple more (New Hampshire and Nevada) currently on the outside looking in. If this alignment and categorical breakdown holds until election day, Mitt Romney will have to sweep the toss up states to clear the 270 barrier. [Yes, he could cede Iowa or Colorado to the president and still get there, but that does not follow the established order of states on the Spectrum.]
Speaking of the Electoral College Spectrum, there were only minimal changes to it on the Romney side of the partisan line. Arizona and Missouri switched places (guarding either side of Tennessee) and Texas leapfrogged both Louisiana and Nebraska deeper into the Romney column.
| The Electoral College Spectrum1 | ||||
| VT-3(6)2 | WA-12(158) | NV-6(257) | AZ-11(167) | ND-3(55) |
| RI-4(10) | NJ-14(172) | OH-183(275/281) | MT-3(156) | KY-8(52) |
| NY-29(39) | CT-7(179) | VA-13(288/263) | IN-11(153) | AL-9(44) |
| HI-4(43) | NM-5(184) | IA-6(294/250) | GA-16(142) | KS-6(35) |
| MD-10(53) | MN-10(194) | CO-9(303/244) | SC-9(126) | AR-6(29) |
| MA-11(64) | OR-7(201) | FL-29(332/235) | LA-8(117) | AK-3(23) |
| IL-20(84) | PA-20(221) | NC-15(206) | NE-5(109) | OK-7(20) |
| CA-55(139) | MI-16(237) | SD-3(191) | TX-38(104) | ID-4(13) |
| DE-3(142) | WI-10(247) | MO-10(188) | WV-5(66) | WY-3(9) |
| ME-4(146) | NH-4(251) | TN-11(178) | MS-6(61) | UT-6(6) |
| 1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
The Watch List loses North Carolina on the day that opens the 2012 debate season. Now both of the closest states -- Florida and North Carolina -- are off the list. That means that the best shots for changing up the steady electoral college tally are just outside of the range for jumping across the partisan line on the Spectrum above and changing the constant 332-206 count that FHQ has had since mid-summer.
| The Watch List1 | |||
| State | Switch | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | from Strong Romney | to Lean Romney | |
| Iowa | from Toss Up Obama | to Lean Obama | |
| Minnesota | from Strong Obama | to Lean Obama | |
| Montana | from Strong Romney | to Lean Romney | |
| Nevada | from Lean Obama | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Ohio | from Toss Up Obama | to Lean Obama | |
| Virginia | from Toss Up Obama | to Lean Obama | |
| 1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Nevada, for example, is close to being a Toss Up Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that toss up distinction. | |||
Please see:
Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.
Recent Posts:
2012 Debates: 1st Presidential Debate Open Thread
The Links (10/3/12): 2012 Debate Season
The Electoral College Map (10/2/12)
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