9 Kasım 2012 Cuma

Does the election mark a cultural shift in popular opinion?

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Something I found on Facebook:
Guys,
I just don't understand this talk about some enduringliberal hegemony or cultural decline evidenced in this last election. The factof the matter is that at the national level, all the prime indicators are of atrend away from Obama and the Democrats. These trends weren't enough to costhim the election, but the trends are there nevertheless.
Bizarrely, both liberal websites like the NY Times and someChristian commentators want to compare things to the 2004 Bush election. Butsurely the relevant point of comparison is 2008 Obama vs. McCain.
In 2008, Obama had an 8% edge over McCain in the popularvote. In 2012, that shrunk to perhaps 2%.
In 2008, the electoral vote totals were 365 (Obama) vs. 173(McCain). In 2012, the totals were 303 (Obama) vs. 206 (Romney). Once again,the trend is away from Obama.
In 2012, Democrats lost the electoral votes of two statesthey carried in 2008 (North Carolina and Indiana), and they gained no newstates.
So, by all indications, the nation was far less enthusiasticabout Obama than four years ago. How does this translate into some nationalshift towards the Democratic agenda, or an enduring Democratic majority? Suchtalk floats as free of the evidence as all the triumphalistic blather about apermanent Republican majority in the wake of W's trouncing of Kerry in 2004.
To be sure, legislative bellwethers aren't great: same-sexmarriage, legalizing recreational marijuana, etc. But the national electionjust isn't indicating what many pundits are claiming. Check out the NY Timespage on the exit polls, and click "Show Change From 2008":
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president/exit-polls
Nearly every demographic category trends toward Romney andaway from Obama, compared to 2008, including the black vote, the unmarriedvote, and all categories of age or education! The only exceptions were theHispanic and Asian vote.
Finally, the AP calculates that voter turnout wassignificantly down, only at 60%:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/11/07/turnout_shaping_up_to_be_lower_than_2008_116092.html
Perhaps 117 million voted, compared to 131 million in 2008.If anything, the trend is towards apathy, not Obama-approval.
As I usually ask: what am I missing?

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