The Red Queen

To contact us Click HERE
I’m nota professional pollster, so perhaps I don’t know the methodology, buthere’s my take.
National polling isparadoxical. Because it’s not possible to survey everyone in a national poll, apollster can only survey a sampling of the electorate. So he must make apreliminary decision about what sample group is representative. He must make aneducated guess about voter turnout. Yet that, itself, is a prejudgment aboutthe future election.
In that respect, it’s not thepoll that predicts the election, but the pollster. In other words, the pollingresults aren’t simply predictive of how voters will vote. Rather, they reflectback on the pollster’s anticipation of voter turnout. So there’s a circularelement to the procedure. In a sense, the pollster had to get ahead of himself.Prior to the polling results is his chosen sample group. In that respect, thepolling results aren’t direct evidence of how voters will vote; rather, theyare evidence of how the pollster predicts they will vote, considering whichsample group made the cut. In a way, he’s having to predict the answer inadvance of the answer. He must have a hunch of how many voters will answer thequestion which way before he even poses the question. Select the respondents inlight of the anticipated response.
At that level, pollsters arein the same boat as other political junkies. Their accuracy depends on havingtheir ear to the ground.
This also raises the questionof whether posters are right because they made a good guess, or because theymade a lucky guess. After all, psychics and astrologers sometimes get it right,but when they do, we chalk that up to luck. (Mind you, I allow for thepossibility of precognition, but right now I’m thinking of charlatans.)
I expect that when they getit right, that is sometimes due to the fact that, as political junkies, theyhave a good feel for the political mood of the country apart from polling. ButI also suspect that in some cases, they just got lucky.
In the nature of the case,we’re more impressed by accurate predictions than inaccurate predictions. Sincewe know the future is unpredictable to some degree, it doesn’t surprise us whenthe prediction is off. So mispredictions are quickly forgotten.
Don’t these polls basicallytell you that Republican respondents will probably vote Republican, Democratrespondents will probably vote Democrat, and which way independents lean? Thekey is getting the proportions right.