[And since we mentioned Utah, I'll go ahead and comment to put your mind at ease about the Beehive state. Romney won't lose that one.]
| New State Polls (11/3/12) | |||||||||
| State | Poll | Date | Margin of Error | Sample | Obama | Romney | Undecided | Poll Margin | FHQ Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | Field | 10/17-10/30 | +/- 2.6% | 1566 likely voters | 54 | 39 | 5 | +15 | +17.60 |
| Florida | Mason-Dixon | 10/30-11/1 | +/- 3.5% | 800 likely voters | 45 | 51 | 4 | +6 | +0.24 |
| Florida | Marist/Wall Street Journal/NBC | 10/31-11/1 | +/- 2.7% | 1545 likely voters | 49 | 47 | 2 | +2 | -- |
| Georgia | Insider Advantage | 11/1 | +/- 4.7% | 426 likely voters | 42.0 | 54.1 | 3.1 | +12.1 | +9.38 |
| Iowa | Mellman Group | 10/30-11/1 | +/- 4.0% | 600 likely voters | 46 | 44 | 10 | +2 | +2.73 |
| Iowa | Selzer/Des Moines Register | 10/30-11/2 | +/- 3.5% | 800 likely voters | 47 | 42 | 2 | +5 | -- |
| Iowa | Grove Insight | 11/1-11/2 | +/- 4.4% | 500 likely voters | 47 | 44 | 8 | +3 | -- |
| Michigan | Public Policy Polling | 11/1-11/3 | +/- 3.7% | 700 likely voters | 52 | 46 | 1 | +6 | +5.73 |
| Minnesota | NMB Research | 10/29-10/31 | +/- 4.38% | 500 likely voters | 45 | 46 | -- | +1 | +7.34 |
| Minnesota | Public Policy Polling | 11/1-11/3 | +/- 2.9% | 1164 likely voters | 53 | 45 | 2 | +8 | -- |
| New Hampshire | Gravis Marketing | 11/1 | +/- 4.3% | 497 likely voters | 50 | 49 | 1 | +1 | +3.10 |
| New Hampshire | University of New Hampshire/WMUR | 10/31-11/2 | +/- 4.4% | 502 likely voters | 48 | 48 | 3 | 0 | -- |
| Ohio | Marist/Wall Street Journal/NBC | 10/31-11/1 | +/- 3.1% | 971 likely voters | 51 | 45 | 3 | +6 | +2.92 |
| Ohio | Grove Insight | 11/1-11/2 | +/- 4.4% | 500 likely voters | 49 | 45 | 4 | +4 | -- |
| Oregon | Public Policy Polling | 10/31-11/1 | +/- 3.2% | 921 registered voters | 52 | 46 | 3 | +6 | +6.19 |
| Pennsylvania | Public Policy Polling | 11/2-11/3 | +/- 3.5% | 790 likely voters | 52 | 46 | 1 | +6 | +5.95 |
| South Dakota | Nielson Brothers Polling | 10/28-10/31 | +/- 3.53% | 795 likely voters | 42 | 50 | 8 | +8 | +9.96 |
| Utah | BYU/Key Research | 10/9-10/13 | +/- 4.4% | 500 likely voters | 20 | 71 | 9 | +51 | +45.33 |
| Utah | Dan Jones | 10/26-11/1 | +/- 3.4% | 870 registered voters | 26 | 69 | -- | +43 | -- |
| Washington | Public Policy Polling | 11/1-11/3 | +/- 3.2% | 932 likely voters | 53 | 46 | 1 | +7 | +13.33 |
| Wisconsin | Grove Insight | 11/1-11/2 | +/- 4.4% | 500 likely voters | 48 | 42 | 8 | +6 | +4.60 |
There was little that changed the overall outlook on the electoral college here at FHQ given the day's polling. Romney was quite strong in the states he was already just fine in and Obama continued to get some good results in the toss up and lean (Obama) states. Public Policy Polling was the most prolific firm on the day (with five total surveys) and the results largely followed the FHQ rank order of states. Michigan, Oregon and Pennsylvania were all bunched together at Obama +6 -- just as they are in the FHQ weighted averages -- and Minnesota was, as here at FHQ, on the Obama side of that group of states. The lone exception to that rule was Washington. It settled in in between Minnesota and that aforementioned group; much closer than our averages have it. Washington state has now slipped into the furthest column to the left on the Electoral College Spectrum below, but PPP has had it closer for the last couple of polls it has conducted in the Evergreen state.
Florida and Ohio should probably also be mentioned. There were polar opposites coming out of the Sunshine state from Mason-Dixon and Marist. The former was more favorable to Romney than the latter. Marist also had the race for Ohio at Obama +6 which is outside where most recent polling has had it. If the Florida poll from the Marist/Wall Street Journal/NBC was similarly Obama-favorable, then that may say something about which one of the two Florida polls was closer to reality. In truth, the answer in the last week has been somewhere in the middle. The average here at FHQ has the balance tipped the slightest of margins -- just 0.24% at this point -- toward the president, but the polling in October has probably inched a little closer to Romney.
The map (changes since 11/2): No change. Obama: 332, Romney 206.
The Electoral College Spectrum (changes since 11/2): No change.
| The Electoral College Spectrum1 | ||||
| VT-3(6)2 | ME-4(158) | NH-4(257) | GA-16(167) | MS-6(58) |
| HI-4(10) | NJ-14(172) | OH-183(275/281) | SD-3(151) | KY-8(52) |
| NY-29(39) | CT-7(179) | IA-6(281/263) | SC-9(148) | AL-9(44) |
| RI-4(43) | NM-5(184) | VA-13(294/257) | IN-11(139) | KS-6(35) |
| MD-10(53) | MN-10(194) | CO-9(303/244) | TN-11(128) | AR-6(29) |
| MA-11(64) | OR-7(201) | FL-29(332/235) | NE-5(117) | AK-3(23) |
| IL-20(84) | PA-20(221) | NC-15(206) | WV-5(112) | OK-7(20) |
| CA-55(139) | MI-16(237) | AZ-11(191) | TX-38(107) | ID-4(13) |
| DE-3(142) | WI-10(247) | MO-10(180) | ND-3(69) | WY-3(9) |
| WA-12(154) | NV-6(253) | MT-3(170) | LA-8(66) | UT-6(6) |
| 1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
The Watch List (changes since 11/2): No change among the toss up states.
South Dakota enters the list and is within a fraction of a point of shifting into the Lean Romney category.
| The Watch List1 | |||
| State | Switch | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up Romney | |
| Georgia | from Strong Romney | to Lean Romney | |
| Montana | from Strong Romney | to Lean Romney | |
| Nevada | from Lean Obama | to Toss Up Obama | |
| New Hampshire | from Toss Up Obama | to Lean Obama | |
| South Dakota | from Strong Romney | to Lean Romney | |
| Wisconsin | from Lean Obama | to Toss Up Obama | |
| 1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction. | |||
Please see:
Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (11/2/12)
The Electoral College Map (11/1/12)
Live by the 3, Die by the 3 (...and other thoughts on what November 6, 2012 is testing)
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